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000
FXUS62 KMFL 152338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY QUIET NEXT 48 HOURS IN STORE FOR TERMINALS...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CU BELOW CI DEBRIS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME ESE AT 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. GULF BREEZE SHOULD
REACH KAPF BTWN 16-19Z SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING WINDS TO WSW AROUND
10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, HAS ALLOWED THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE TO WARM AND DRY OUT SOME. THIS HAS INHIBITED ANY
CONVECTIVE CELLS SO FAR TODAY. THE GFS KEEPS ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP, NEAR THE LAKE REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT.
WITH LAPSE RATES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, AS WELL AS PWATS DROPPING TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES, THIS IS BELIEVABLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING, BUT AM NOT BITING OFF ENTIRELY ON THIS SCENARIO. HAVE
KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER GLADE/HENDRY/AND COLLIER COUNTIES,
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA, BUT THIS MAY
WELL EVEN BE OVERKILL TODAY. BUT, ONLY TIME WILL TELL. IF IT IS
NOT ABLE TO GO TODAY, IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME GOING
TOMORROW AS WELL, AS CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE DRIER, WITH A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH. HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE OVER
THE GULF COAST FOR TOMORROW WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT AGAIN, THAT MAY
BE TOO HIGH.

THE HIGH CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HOWEVER, THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS
ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA,
AND THEREFORE INCREASING MOISTURE. SO, THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS INTO AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BY WHICH TIME, MORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY SEE
CONVECTION FIRING.

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH. IF IT KEEPS THAT TRACK, IT SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. IF IT DOES COME CLOSER, IT WILL, OF COURSE,
CHANGE THE FORECAST TO MOST LIKELY ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, WHICH COULD
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS WILL
KICK IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING STABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO BEING MORE MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA, AND THUS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  85  75  86 / 10 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES           76  88  75  88 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK