Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 141043
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
643 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South
Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an
area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly drift eastward. This will allow for a warm east
to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place through the end of
the week. While this will support mainly dry conditions through
Friday, there will be just enough lower level moisture across the
region to support the possibility of a brief isolated shower along
the breeze. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range
from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to
upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The mid level ridge will hold tight across the region throughout
most of the weekend as surface high pressure remains in place
over the western Atlantic. At the same time, a weakening frontal
boundary draped over the Southeast will eventually stall out over
Northern Florida and the Gulf Coast States. The approach of this
frontal boundary will cause the winds to gradually veer and become
more southerly as the weekend progresses. While mainly dry
conditions will remain in place throughout the weekend, an
isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out on Sunday afternoon as
moisture advection increases along the southerly wind flow.
Temperatures across the region will moderate as well as highs will
rise into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas and
potentially into the lower 90s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.

Heading into early next week, the mid level ridge will begin to
break down as a deepening mid level trough pushes across the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, this will allow for the stalled
frontal boundary to begin to move southward again through the
Florida Peninsula. Out ahead of the frontal boundary, winds will
increase out of the south southwest on Monday as the pressure
gradient across South Florida tightens. While the exact details
remain highly uncertain, there will be enough moisture to support
a chance of showers and enough lift and instability with the front
nearby to support a slight chance of thunderstorm development on
Monday and Monday night as the front pushes through. The best
chances for thunderstorm development look to remain over the Lake
Okeechobee region closer to the front. High temperatures on Monday
will remain warm as they rise into the upper 80s to around 90
across most areas.

After the front passes through the region on Monday night, high
pressure will build in from the north bringing a drier air mass
to the region on Tuesday. As winds increase out of the northwest,
cold air advection will take place which will bring temperatures
back to seasonable levels during the day on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle.
Light and variable winds will become ESE around 5-10KT around
15-17Z and through the rest of the period. Gulf breeze may allow
for SW wind shift near/over KAPF in the early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, a gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time frame. Over the weekend, winds
will veer and gradually become more southerly across all local
waters as a frontal boundary stalls out to the north. Seas across
the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2
feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the end of the
week. As winds become more southerly over the weekend, the rip
current risk will gradually diminish during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  71  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  67  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        83  70  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  71  81  71 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  70  81  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  68  81  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       83  70  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           84  67  85  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons


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