Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 131848
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Benign weather conditions prevail across South Florida as the upper
level ridging remains in control of the region. With the
assistance of high pressure, the rest of the week is expected to
with a dry and stable environment. The slow warming trend will
enable the afternoon high to increase by a few degrees, and again
tomorrow, with afternoon temperatures reaching mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are anticipated tonight.
There will be an expansion of the ridging on Thursday which will
allow for a subtle wind shift. With a shift to the E/SE, there
will be a slight increase in dew points, thus providing an
accommodating rise in RH values and safer conditions for burning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Mid-level ridging will build over the area during the late week to
early weekend period, displacing the storm track north of South
Florida (SFL) for most of the extended period. At the surface,
weak high pressure east of the area will maintain a warm southeast
(SE) flow through the upcoming weekend, as any frontal boundaries
will remain well north of the area. The subsiding regime and
fairly stable air mass will keep rain chances minimal through at
least the first half of the weekend. The main story will be the
warming temperatures, especially from Friday onwards, with high
temperatures expected to rise into the upper 80s and potentially
even low 90s by the upcoming weekend. This warming trend is
generally more pronounced across the interior due to the
southeasterly synoptic flow. The ridge may begin to break down,
with flow veering more southwesterly ahead of an approaching
frontal system on Monday. Some models are predicting isolated to
scattered showers across parts of the east coast for late Sunday
into early Monday. However, it is currently too speculative to
pinpoint exact details beyond the potential for rainfall during
this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will
continue to veer and increase out of the SE to ~10 kts this
afternoon. At KAPF, winds have began to increase out of the WSW
as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds will decrease regionwide and
remain light and variable overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Winds and seas will continue to diminish as the high pressure to
our north gradually shifts eastward. Wave heights over the Gulf
Stream are expected to decrease down to about 3 feet or less over
all waters today. Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail through the mid-week period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 71 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 67 84 68 83 / 0 10 0 0
Opa-Locka 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 70 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 70 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 69 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 67 84 67 84 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Simmons