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000
FXUS62 KMFL 151121
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME STRATOCU INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA THAT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL AIR OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THUS...PERIODS OF 4-6KFT CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH SCT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN EASTERLY AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KT...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. FOR KAPF...GULF
BREEZE SHOULD INTRUDE EARLY /MID- AFTN...GIVING WINDS A WESTERLY
COMPONENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/

..DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
IN OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CUBA.
THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER.

THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE BACK NORTH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE SLOWLY WASHING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME...AND ALLOW FOR
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH.
SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ADDING THUNDER
WORDING TO THE AREA.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY
SWING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY THIS WEEKEND...AS THE SPEEDS
SLOWLY DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO DECREASE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY TO LESS THAN 2
FEET BY THIS WEEKEND...AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF
WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL FALL INTO UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THEY WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER...THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH. SO NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK