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000
FXUS62 KMFL 140055
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLIER THAN USUAL THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA IS PCPN-FREE AS OF 0Z. TEMPS THIS EVENING IN U70S
AND L80S...AND WILL FALL GENERALLY INTO L/M70S FOR FRIDAY MORNING
MINIMA.

18Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LLVL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS SUBTLE
ENOUGH FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEA-BREEZE INTRUSION INTO
EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE
AREAS. THIS COULD ALSO HAVE LIMITING EFFECT ON DIURNAL WARMING.

PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO CUBA. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
AREAS. THESE HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

DRIER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY REDUCING THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE AREA.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY WITH REST OF THE AREA SEEING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS EAST
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY DRY THIS
WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE POPS WILL BE
AT 10 TO 20 PERCENT WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE NORMAL
POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE WAVE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SO
THE SCATTERED POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SET UP EARLY FRIDAY AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT WITH JUNE TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW BUT IT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE
VERY FAR INLAND AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
THIS WOULD ALSO HINT IN SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND HAVE INTRODUCE VCTS AFT 18-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR HIGHS FOR FRIDAY 06/14/2013

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS
MIA             92            97 - 2011
FLL             91            96 - 1998
PBI             92            98 - 2011
MIA BEACH       89            92 - 1998

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  90 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  91  75  90 / 10 20 10 10
MIAMI            75  91  75  91 / 10 20 10 10
NAPLES           75  88  74  90 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...23/SK
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB