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000
FXUS62 KMFL 160605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SCATTERED 4-6KFT CUMULUS MAINLY DURING AFTERNOONS. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
MID-MRNG...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY GULF BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NAPLES BTWN 18-2Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN.
MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO WIND AND SKY GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES LITTLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY WITH A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CAP PERSISTING ALONG WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN. THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ONLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY MORE THAN AN INCH ON FRIDAY WHICH
IS STILL MINIMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE FORESEEN
THEREFORE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AN ONGOING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THERE COULD BE
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN EAST COAST SHOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH SUCH LOW PWAT VALUES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
POWERFUL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE
THIS WEEK WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS PHASED IN WITH THE MID LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH THEN FORECAST IT TO GET TRAPPED
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE BUT HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL SET UP IN RELATION TO ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON WHICH RUN IS LOOKED AT, THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OR NOT. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THE
LAST RUNS WERE LOOKING LIKE POSSIBLE THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT DO
NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE
MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS MOSTLY LESS THAN
4 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 35 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW INCREASE
OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  74 / -  10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  85  76 / -  10 20 20
MIAMI            84  74  86  75 / -  10 20 20
NAPLES           88  69  90  71 / -  -  20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK