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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191443
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1043 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR UPDATES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR PRODUCT UPDATES
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AT KAPF, A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PWAT RUNNING WELL BELOW THE JUNE
AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH A GENERAL LIGHT EAST WIND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWAT IN THE 1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT
COULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AT NIGHT WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO
DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL
MODELS DEPICT HIGHER AFRICAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY LEADING TO HAZY SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN SHOWING A
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. SO THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  87  78 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  81  88  80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            90  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           91  74  92  74 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC