Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181140
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
740 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary,
with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex
off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across
the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds
across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the
front further south and closer to SoFlo.
Ensembles/local solutions show agreement in keeping the southern half of
the peninsula in the warm sector ahead of the FROPA, with prevailing
southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself
will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent
trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little to no impacts are
anticipated tomorrow from this feature over SoFlo, with some isolated to
scattered showers possible, mainly around the Lake region.
The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating
process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas.
Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the
peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday
afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air
filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the
forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday
with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Long range models keep generally good weather conditions across SoFlo
Through much of the work week, with a huge high pressure cell dominating
much of the east half of the CONUS and the GOMEX. The sfc ridge slowly
pushes eastward and flattens by mid week, which will keep a generally
easterly wind in place through early Friday.
Conditions begin to change late Friday and into Saturday as a trough
erodes the ridge and sends a frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula.
Model consensus remains low regarding potential timing and location of
this feature. However, it seems that this one will bring better chances of
widespread showers and possible thunderstorm activity. The long range
forecast will surely continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes
available.
Afternoon highs are expected to remain near or cooler than normal, mainly
in the mid-upper 70s through much of the period. Overnight lows should
remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the
exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may
be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb,
then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day
and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled
out, particularly near/around PBI this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly
for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are
expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with
hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through
Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday
behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the
rest of the week as easterly flow returns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 89 67 76 61 / 10 20 10 0
West Kendall 90 65 77 57 / 10 20 10 0
Opa-Locka 90 65 77 60 / 10 20 10 0
Homestead 89 66 77 61 / 10 20 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 88 65 74 61 / 10 20 10 0
N Ft Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0
Pembroke Pines 90 65 76 60 / 10 20 10 0
West Palm Beach 88 62 71 57 / 30 20 0 0
Boca Raton 90 64 74 60 / 20 20 10 0
Naples 83 62 76 56 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ063-066-
067-069>071-073.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Rizzuto