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000
FXUS62 KMFL 192334
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. VCTS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 01Z FOR THE NAPLES AREA. FOR MONDAY, GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

UPDATE...SHORT TERM UPDATE - ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL
INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. IN FACT, SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE FT. LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI
METRO AREA. UPDATED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. INCREASED POPS A TAD
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE
GULF SEA BREEZE. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, TYPICAL OF A SUMMER TIME LIKE PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS S/W OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ALBEIT WEAKENING
YET ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
GLOBAL AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW TO VARYING DEGREES S/W FARTHER
UP STREAM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THAT COMBINED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY,
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL JUSTIFY
CALLING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SNDGS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WITH
S/W OVER NEXT TWO DAYS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST MODELS IS NEARLY STATIONARY, THERE IS NO
CLEAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION FAVORING WEST VERSUS EAST COAST BUT
ALL MOS FAVOR EAST AND THAT IS LIKELY BECAUSE THAT IS THE AREA
MOST FAVORED BY UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/W
DROPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED
S/W BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH MAIN THRUST FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING
EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES EAST COAST OF US THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER CONSISTENT WHEN LOOKING
AT RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND WHEN COMPARING LATEST GFS, ECMWF, AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. ALONG WITH THIS
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY PASSES AREA TO THE
NORTH.

MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK TURNING MORE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY
THAT TIME TOO. BOTTOM LINE IS SURFACE WINDS AND/OR WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  85  73  86 / 10 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  86  74  86 / 10 50 40 60
MIAMI            75  87  74  87 / 10 50 40 60
NAPLES           71  89  70  89 / 30 40 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE