000
FXUS62 KMFL 160650
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

...ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CUBA MOVES SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WILL
OPEN UP INTO A SHORT WAVE AND MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT THE STEERING FLOW FROM A
EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK
NORTH FROM CUBA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

SO THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...BEFORE THE RETURN OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DISSIPATES AND THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE THUNDER WORDING.

FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK
NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
PWAT VALUES TO BE AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.3 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED UP INTO
THE CHANCE CAT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SCATTERED 4-6KFT CUMULUS MAINLY DURING AFTERNOONS. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
MID-MRNG...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY GULF BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NAPLES BTWN 18-2Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS
AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  74 / -  10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  85  76 / -  10 20 20
MIAMI            84  74  86  75 / -  10 20 20
NAPLES           88  69  90  71 / -  -  20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK