000
FXUS62 KMFL 161122 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
722 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TONIGHT. FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE TERMINAL KAPF COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. SO HAVE PUT IN VCSH FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 18Z
UNTIL 23Z TODAY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z AR0UND 10 KNOTS AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES PUSHES THROUGH.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/BD


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
ACTUALLY WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. GPS MET DATA
SHOWS PWATS LOWERING A TAD. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY.
SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR/LAKE REGION AS A SE
STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW LIGHTENS, SO
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ON OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE HIGHER POPS
TOWARDS THE COASTS ON WED. IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MOVES INTO SOUTH FL POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON,
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW THE SAL THEN, BUT MORESO ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT A BIT. THE SAL
REALLY SHOWED UP WELL IN THE SAN JUAN, PR AND BARBADOS SOUNDINGS
YESTERDAY. OF COURSE IT WILL DISPERSE AS IT TRAVELS HERE, BUT HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.
WHILE CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE SAL ENTERS THE
AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONGER TSTORMS DUE TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND IT AND PWATS SURGING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS IN
THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RH`S REMAIN TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

AVIATION...FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF
TERMINAL KPBI THAT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE FOR TERMINAL KAPF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CLOSER
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  88  78 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  89  81 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI            91  79  90  79 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES           91  76  91  75 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD