000
FXUS62 KMFL 171225
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OFF THE COAST OF BROWARD
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST...AND HAVE MOVED ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BUMPED UP THE POPS OVER THE WATER BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND
UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WATERS AND NEAR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EAST AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE SE COAST THIS AM PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS A
FEW MILES OFFSHORE FLL/PMP MOVING NORTH AND INDICATIVE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL SITES. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME E/SE BY 15Z, WITH GULF SEABREEZE AT KAPF BY 17Z.

MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

.EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM
AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE KEPT THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING NOW BEING ADDED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK WEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE
THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO WORK NORTHWEST AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING THE
POPS TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OCSNL 3-6KFT
CIGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 5-10 KT
WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TODAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME...NO
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  85  73 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  86  76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            86  75  87  75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           88  71  88  71 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM