000
FXUS62 KMFL 150828
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
428 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DISSIPATING. CONVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING TSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND GULF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS DRIED OUT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING
PWATS NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO NEGLIGIBLE POPS TODAY, THE HRRR AND SREF SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE STRONG HEATING AND STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, ALBEIT LOWER
THAN RECENT DAYS, HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED TSTORMS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH
SCATTERED TSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. WARMING ALOFT AS A GULF RIDGE
BUILDS IN WILL LEAD TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS INTENSE, THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SOUTHWARD TO THE LAKE REGION
TONIGHT-SUNDAY. STEERING FLOW IS MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, SO
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TUE-WED
WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING MID WEEK. TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THEN DRYING LOOKS TO OCCUR THU-FRI
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
HAZY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH LESS TSTORM COVERAGE, BUT
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN STEEPING LAPSE RATES OF THE
SAL...BUT THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRESENT. TOO FAR OFF IN TIME TO MAKE THAT CALL.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST-EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WESTERLY ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL PREDOMINATE OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN
TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  87  78 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  80 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI            90  79  89  79 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES           92  76  92  75 / 20 10 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD