000
FXUS62 KMFL 120617
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
217 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Models push a trough/low complex into the Great Lakes region
today, while an associated frontal boundary drifts southward
across the southern half of the Florida peninsula. Latest
ensembles and globals agree in pushing whatever is left
of the boundary into the Florida Keys and the western Caribbean
by late this morning. Then, high pressure quickly follows in
the wake of the FROPA and ushers drier air from the north.
North-northwesterly winds will remain around 10 mph by this
afternoon, helping in keeping afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s.

For Saturday, models intensify and expand the high pressure cell
over the SE CONUS and into the state, with SoFlo in the southwest
periphery of the high. This will veer sfc winds to a more NE flow
while moderately tightening pressure gradients. Speeds will
increase to the 10-15 mph range with possible gusts to 20 mph at
times. This will again help in keeping afternoon temps in the
lower temps across much of SoFlo.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Long range models remain persistent in depicting broad high
pressure over the GOMEX remaining in control of the region,
with NE winds becoming gusty at times. Subsidence and dry
conditions will result in a warming trend, with afternoon
highs climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 for the east
coast and immediate interior areas, and low 90s over the
Gulf coast and northern interior.

In general, expect dry conditions to prevail, with little
to no significant rain through the forecast period. RH values
are also expected to decrease and potentially increasing
the fire weather risk early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SHRA departing away from the region as light to moderate westerly
flow continues shifting to a northwesterly direction by daybreak.
An Atlantic sea-breeze will develop by 16-18z slowly moving
inland switching winds at east coast terminals to an northeasterly
direction before winds become light and variable once again
overnight. VFR cigs will prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Conditions will gradually improve today in the wake of a frontal
passage, with winds dropping to around 10kt by this afternoon.
However, a surge in winds could result in another round of SCA
Conditions tonight and into Saturday morning. Winds will
likely remain breezy through early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm beaches through
the rest of the weekend due to a lingering swell. A high risk of
rip currents continues for the Collier beaches today as well. An
elevated risk may also persist for the rest of the Atlantic
beaches as the low-lvl flow shifts northerly/northeasterly and
increases in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  63  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     86  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        85  62  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        85  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  63  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  82  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   86  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  59  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  61  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           81  61  83  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069-168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Hadi