Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 232325
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The strong low pressure system that was responsible for the
widespread rainfall over the past 48 hours has finally drifted
east of the region, leaving cooler and drier conditions in its
wake. Limited PoPs to just Atlantic waters, with rainfall
generally being unlikely over land for Sunday. Winds have been
weaker than previous forecast, and thus temperatures overnight
could be perhaps a degree or two higher in some areas due to the
lack of expected warm air advection. No other changes or concerns
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Active weather kicked up earlier than anticipated this morning,
which brought continuous bands of heavy rainfall and lightning to
primarily Mainland Monroe and Miami-Dade counties. Rainfall rates
reached approximately 1-2"/hr to already saturated grounds and led
to ponding and potential flooded roadways. Additional light
scattered showers and storms are possible, but a majority of heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms will likely remain over the Atlantic.
The cold front is rapidly approaching the area this afternoon,
which should bring drier conditions for the remainder of the day
and weekend. Winds will remain breezy and veer to the west-
northwest with the frontal passage, but have weaken drastically
from yesterday`s gusts. Therefore, the Flood Watch and Wind
Advisory have been cancelled. Cloud coverage is keeping
temperatures cooler, but have the potential to reach highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Mainly dry conditions expected overnight and
cooler with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The shortwave moves off to our east on Sunday and upper level
ridging starts to build into the area. Another cold front will drop
south across the area during the day. While most of the area will
remain dry, a few showers are possible along the Atlantic coast.
High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mid level ridging centered over the northern Carribean Sea will
build into the region for the early portion of next week and it
will gradually slide eastward towards the middle of the week. At
the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will dominate
the weather pattern across South Florida as it also slides
eastward through the middle of the week. This will allow for
mainly dry conditions to remain in place during this time frame.
While a breezy easterly wind flow will start off the week, these
winds will veer and become southeasterly towards the middle of the
week as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic. This will
create a moderating trend in temperatures through the middle of
the week. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from
the upper 70s across the east coast metro area to the lower 80s
across Southwest Florida. By Wednesday, high temperatures will
range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the upper 80s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

On Wednesday night into Thursday, the latest ensemble guidance is
showing a deepening mid level trough gradually pushing across the
eastern half of the country. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will slowly push through the Southeast and move into Northern and
Central Florida. The guidance continues to hint at broad
cyclogenesis trying to take place along the front in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night before crossing over the Florida
Peninsula and pushing into the western Atlantic on Thursday.
Uncertainty remains high for this part of the forecast as guidance
remains in disagreement with where cyclogenesis takes place and
how intense the developing area of low pressure is as it moves
through the region. In any event, out ahead of this frontal
boundary it does look like moisture advection will be taking place
and there will be enough lift to support an increased chance of
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms as Thursday
progresses. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range
from around 80 west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid 80s across the
east coast metro areas.

Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region and
it should bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler
temperatures to South Florida for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF cycle.
Winds generally W/WNW becoming NW/N overnight/early AM, then
gradually NE by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Latest forecast guidance for wind speed has diminished in magnitude
compared to prior model runs; therefore have dropped the Gale
Warning for the Atlantic waters. A Small Craft Advisory still
remains in effect for the Atlantic waters until Monday morning, and
the Gulf Waters/Biscayne Bay until tomorrow morning. Dangerous seas
up to around 6 to 9 feet will be possible across the Atlantic waters
through Monday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Sunday, with an elevated risk expected this weekend
for the Gulf beaches. While conditions improve for the Gulf beaches
early next week, the elevated risk will remain for all Atlantic
beaches through at least mid-week due to lingering swell. Dangerous
surf conditions are likely along the Palm beaches beginning Monday
and lasting through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            62  79  67  78 /  10  10   0   0
West Kendall     60  81  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        62  81  67  80 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        61  80  67  79 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  63  78  68  77 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  63  78  67  77 /  10  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   62  80  67  80 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  62  77  66  77 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       62  78  67  78 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           63  80  64  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...SRB


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