000
FXUS62 KMFL 121305
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING OUR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWS 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -9C RANGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH, EXPECT COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING -10C
AT 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON. ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS
AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX AROUND 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA, PLACING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
THE DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION, AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THIS POINTS TO AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO EVEN BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE INITIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SUBURBS OF SE FLORIDA AROUND 1-2 PM, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SW GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
NE TO SW. HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS HIGHER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  77  89  76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            89  77  90  75 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES           89  74  88  74 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...54/BNB