000
FXUS62 KMFL 231354 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...SOME STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING..

.UPDATE...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUE FROM THE MORNING
SOUNDING OF THE MIA WAS STILL SHOWING 1.4 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...DUE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.
SO WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 20 POPS OVER THE WEST COAST INCREASING TO
30 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE THE POPS WILL BE RAISE TO 40 PERCENT.

THE 12 MIA SOUNDING ALSO SHOW GOOD DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. WITH THIS DRY AIR ALOFT SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. SO
WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE AND
IN THE MORNING UPDATE ZONES.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AT KPBI. A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
ON-SET OF THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED TO AROUND 18Z TIME FRAME...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE PENINSULA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES DISPLACED TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE PENINSULA. MID-UPPER TROUGH IS
TO OUR EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT
WILL BE LESS CONVECTION COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. STILL, WE EXPECT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. SO THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE, AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
- AT LEAST ISOLATED. HAVE PAINTED 30 POPS EAST COAST, 20 INTERIOR,
AND KEPT IT DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE NAPLES AREA. ALTHOUGH STORM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LESS, THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. STORM MOTION WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOCUSED EASTERN AREAS. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING 90F MOST LOCALES. CHANGES OCCUR THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND THOUGH. ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FL ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING OVER THE FL STRAITS BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY WHILE PICKING UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND THIS
BREEZY NE-E WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BETTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND
CONTINUING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH RISK EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AND MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST PWATS DROP BELOW AN INCH BY SUNDAY. SO WITH THIS DRYING
TREND HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND NO RAIN
SHOWER/TSTORM MENTION ON SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY AND BEYOND, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE, BUT SLOWLY. SO HAVE A SLOW INCREASING POP
TREND THEN.

DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 60S THIS WEEKEND, AND
WITH THE INCREASING BREEZE, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST, IT WILL FEEL
NICE BEFORE HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SEAS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
PREVAIL OUT OF THE NE-E AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS ON THE INCREASE BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, BUT CRITICAL RH`S ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  71  89  72 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  91  74 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI            90  75  90  74 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES           86  71  88  73 / 10 -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK