000
FXUS62 KMFL 221856
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...DRIER WEATHER COMING FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
ALONG THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY
BRING IN DRY AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY...AND WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY BACK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP THE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO MOVE
DIRECTLY INTO TERMINALS. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT VCTS EVERYWHERE
THROUGH 23Z. EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...AS DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE MORNING. SOME FOG
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE NEAR KTMB...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ATTM TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE
ALREADY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL
23Z...AND DRAINAGE FLOW WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF STREAM SEAS WHERE THEY COULD BUILD TO 6 FEET LATE THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  87  72  89 / 30 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  90 / 30 20 10 10
MIAMI            74  89  74  91 / 30 20 10 10
NAPLES           72  86  72  88 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA