Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 191133
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
733 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The weakening frontal boundary will wash out this morning as it
moves across the area with any scattered rain showers or isolated
thunderstorms clearing out by the late morning hours. Surface high
pressure and broad mid-level ridging will develop over the Gulf
coast states behind the front, allowing for a dry air mass to
filter in and temperatures to lower to a more seasonable level. In
addition, winds will shift to a northerly direction and
eventually northeasterly direction while maintaining breezy levels
behind the front. Wind gusts will mainly be in the 20-25mph range
on Tuesday, though some gusts close to 30mph will be possible.
Comfortable weather will then continue through Wednesday as the
surface high advects over the Florida Peninsula and eventually
into the western Atlantic where winds then shift to an easterly
direction later on Wednesday. The only concern beyond Tuesday
morning will be RH levels dropping below 40%, especially from the
interior portions of South Florida to the west coast that could
pose increased fire weather potential. East coast areas should
stay above 40%.
Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the mid
70s to around 80 for both days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure
to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this time
period will be at or slightly below normal, likely in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees across South Florida.
A potent system is then expected to cross FL Friday into early
Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the
potential for heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early
forecast QPF ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher
amounts will certainly be possible. Still too early to determine
if there will be a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening,
but that potential will be monitored closely over the next several
days. Southerly winds will be quite gusty through late Friday
night, especially along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph +
possible.
Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are
expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level
ridging builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the
weekend will be right around climatological norms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Some lingering shower activity may persist over the east coast
terminals for the next couple of hours before dissipating as a
cold front pushes off to the south. Behind the front, a gusty
north to northeasterly wind flow will develop through the rest of
the day across all terminals. These winds will diminish and become
light and variable this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds and seas are expected to increase for today especially over
the Atlantic waters as a frontal boundary passes through the area
this morning. Seas could reach as high as 7-10ft with wind gusts
up to 25-30kts. These hazardous marine conditions will begin to
subside Tuesday night into the mid-week period.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The risk for rip currents becomes high across the east coast
beaches today behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain
elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop to the
30-40% range today for most of South Florida as a surface high
builds behind the front and a dry air mass sets in. East coast
areas are likely 40-45% and interior to the west coast between
30-40%, with lowest RHs occurring from the western interior to the
west coastline. Winds are not expected to reach warning criteria
levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 76 63 78 67 / 20 0 0 0
West Kendall 78 59 80 63 / 20 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 77 62 80 65 / 20 0 0 0
Homestead 77 63 79 65 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 74 62 76 67 / 20 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 74 62 77 66 / 20 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 76 62 79 65 / 20 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 72 59 75 63 / 10 0 0 0
Boca Raton 74 61 77 65 / 20 0 0 0
Naples 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC