000
FXUS62 KMFL 211146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE ALREADY MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY IS EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS KPBI THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS GO OVER THE
TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS.

FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE BETWEEN 18-21Z.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED AWAY FROM THE MIAMI METRO AREA AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAKNESSES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES AND VERY WEAK STORM MOTION...THESE
STORMS HAVE PUMMELED PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL RATES FROM 4 TO AS HIGH AS 8.55 INCHES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS AS REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING HIGH...RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN AS DEPICTED
YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS
AND VERY WEAK MEAN STORM MOTION EXPECTED AGAIN...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD H5 TROUGH ROUNDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT HPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY DEPICTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  86  75 / 70 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  74  86  78 / 60 30 50 20
MIAMI            85  73  87  76 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES           88  71  87  71 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
     MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI
     DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK