000
FXUS66 KMFR 151600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. STRATUS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, BUT IT WILL BURN BACK TO
THE COASTLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE HOTTER
AND MORE UNSTABLE TODAY, AND MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGER IN THE SW UPPER
FLOW TO REALLY KICK ANYTHING OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATE CAP HOLDING IN THE VALLEYS TODAY, BUT THE MOUNTAINS
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST MODERATE CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND
WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL. MODELS STILL
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM THE TRINITIES THROUGH THE
CASCADES TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED, THUS
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF LIGHTNING. STORMS COULD ALSO DRIFT OUT ONTO
THE EAST SIDE, BUT THIS WOULD BE AN EXCEPTION. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FROM
THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS. THE COASTAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THERE IS GRADUAL
IMPROVENT IN COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN SCATTERING OUT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS WELL INLAND
FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT...CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES FROM AROUND MOUNT SHASTA NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
EXCEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A COOLING TREND WITH
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZINESS. IN ADDITION...THE
LOW WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FALL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE IS POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE REGION. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSING IT FROM THE CURRENT
POSITION NEAR 50N/135W INLAND OVER OREGON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE EC IS CURRENTLY THE WETTER SOLUTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...COORDINATED IN LAST EVENING`S UPDATE WITH
INCREASING THE THUNDER CHANCE JUST A BIT TODAY AND REFINING THE
AREA TO THE TRINITIES NORTHWARD TO AROUND AND NORTHEAST OF CRATER
LAKE. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING UP FROM OFF OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHOULD PROVIDE A MARGINAL TRIGGER TO INTERACT WITH
DESTABILIZATION AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES
ARE IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER SO THE MAIN AREA TO BEWARE FOR
LIGHTNING TODAY IS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE FIRE DANGER IS
HIGH. WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT STRIKE COVERAGE THERE
WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS.

OVERALL THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH A MODERATE
CAP AND INCREASING AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENT KEEPING IT STABLE.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING COULD SNEAK INTO CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTY BUT UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY...WE HAVE TAPERED BACK PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP OVER
THE WEST SIDE AND NUDGED THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER THREAT
JUST A BIT EASTWARD. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SOME
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MENTIONED AREAS IS HIGH.

00Z NAM12 AND GFS ADVERTISE MONDAY CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN GOING
FORECAST. SCALED BACK JUST A BIT BUT MAINTAINED THE WETTER EC-
LIKE FORECAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RAIN AMOUNTS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$