Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KMHX 221936 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 236 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO JUST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --DRY WEDGE FINALLY ERODING OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWING LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN. SOLID CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING OVER THE AREA AND LEADING EDGE OF PCPN NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVE HOURS AND WILL CONT CAT POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNGT FCST PERIOD. RAIN COOLED AIR ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50-55F DEG RANGE MOST AREAS OVRNGT EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F AT THE COAST.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --RAIN WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA COME DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM S TO N AS MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO VA. FCST QPF REMAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY RESULT WITH UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND UPPER 60S PSBL AT THE COAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE WITH STRONG WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND KEPT SKIES MOCLDY TO CLDY THRU THIS PERIOD. ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MOIST NOCTURNAL ONSHORE FLOW.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED IN ON WED. WILL TREND CLOUDIER AND COOLER BUT LOW LEVEL WEDGE SHUD BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. THIS SHUD ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS THU NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP EAST COAST TROF SIGNALS DRY AND COOL WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM SUN...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE INTO TN/W NC...HOWEVER CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF IT WILL BEING TO FILL INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA/SC COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN RESPONSE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND DROP WITH LIGHT RA/DZ BEGINNING MAINLY AFT MIDNIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO 400-700 FT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER INTO MON NT. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. BY WED ANOTHER COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE AND INTO THU...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT FRI.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES CONTINUED TO NOSE S OVER THE REGION KEEPING A PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE VARIATION IN THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT AFT MIDNIGHT A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SC/GA COAST WILL BEGIN TO PINCH THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...AND WINDS MAY PICK UP A FEW KNOTS TO SUSTAINED 20KT. THE NAM IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS SFC FEATURE THAN THE GFS...TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SOUNDS MON. THE GFS KEEPS IT OFFSHORE...SLOWER AND WEAKER. THE GFS IS THE PREFER ED MODEL SO HAVE LEANED PREV FCST IN THIS DIRECTION. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT PUT SCA CONDITIONS INTO THE SOUNDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY SUSTAINED 20KT AND SCEC. AS THE LOW MOVES E MON AFT IT IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N...PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER SEAS TO WATERS WELL N OF OBX. THE DEVELOPING NE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL DRIVE SOME OF THAT ENERGY S...KEEPING SCA SEAS IN OUR N WATERS THROUGH LATE MON. BY THU ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL NOT PRODUCE NOTABLE WINDS/SEAS AS IT PASSES THE REGION ON THU...BUT IT IS EXP TO STRENGTHEN N OF DELMARVA. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT AND POTENTIALLY INTO SAT DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED CONDITIONS TO STRONG SCA AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT COULD SEE POTENTIAL GALE WARNINGS LATE THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...SJ MARINE...SJ
