Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KMHX 100817 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 317 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND LINGER INTO LATE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM WED...WINDS DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL SEE THE FOG RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. THE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT DZ COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...BEGINNING TO SEE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NE OBX WHERE 7MB 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEING OBSERVED. AS THE STRONG UPPER LVL ENERGY STILL TO OUR W SLIDES JUST TO OUR N THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL JET AROUND 200KT MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. ALSO LOOKING AT A STRONG LLJ WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL AROUND 50 KTS+ DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...TRANSLATING TO SFC WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45MPH+ POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NOW...THE DRIER AIR WILL DRIVE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT...THE DAILY HIGHS WILL LIKELY HAVE OCCURRED THEN WITH TEMPS FALLING THIS MORNING AND THEN STEADYING IN THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME SCU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES BY. THE COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TD WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 24-48 HR TIMEFRAME...TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR ALL BUT T WHERE NAM WAS TOO HIGH AT INITIALIZATION. FOR THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL PEAK...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES TO OUR NE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW...BUT AS IS TYPICAL BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AND HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AS WINDS REMAIN UP (WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS). THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR W WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THU WITH COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 AM WED...QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST NOSES INTO THE REGION. W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH FEW CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER THE SHIFT TO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME GIVEN MANY RIVERS IN FLOOD. LIKELY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FCST. THIS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN U.S. DUE TO LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THOUGH WX FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS QUIETER AS S STREAM SINKS FURTHER S...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA. A FEW SHORT WAVES CURRENTLY ON SAT ARE BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS WHICH COULD IMPACTING TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF ANY POTENTIAL SFC FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS TRACKS...ONE SUCH S/W WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON SUN NT INTO MON. THE FIRST ONE COULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE NEXT S STREAM LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FL SAT. THE PRESENCE OF THIS S/W COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE N TRACK AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO OUR S...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC FLURRIES/-SN/RA FRI NT INTO SAT AS HPC QPF SHOWING MEASURABLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SECOND WAVE...THOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER. ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS WITH A FASTER TRACK...WITH GEM/GFS SLOWER AND WARMER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING). THE SFC FEATURE BY THE MODELS SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE OR LOW NEAR THE COAST...WHICH MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W. UNLIKE THE S STREAM/GULF SYSTEMS...THESE NW DISTURBANCES WILL LACK A SOURCE OF MOISTURE...SO NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE RAIN/SNOW EVENTS TO PLAY A ROLE IN CONTINUING THE RIVER FLOODING.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS BNDRY LAYER MIXING INCREASES ACRS THE AREA. ANY LIFR CIGS SHUD ALSO BE LIFTING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BEFORE DAWN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCT/BKN DIURNAL SC AS COLD POOL PASSES BY TO NORTH TODAY BUT VFR CONDS WILL RULE AFTER SUNRISE. OF HIGH CONCERN TODAY WILL BE VERY STRONG SFC WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT FLIGHT OPS WITH WEST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATE BUT STILL 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN DEEP DRY NW FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY TOWARD DAWN AS LOW PRES OFF THE VA CAPES INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY. 50KT WEST 925MB JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS MAY HAVE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN OVER COLDER WATERS AS GULF STREAM HAS BEEN PUSHED OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS SO SEE NO NEED TO DOWNGRADE STORM WARNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE PEAKING THRU THE EVE HOURS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY LOOSENS WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. N/NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GET A BUMP FROM LOW PRES PASSING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FORECASTING JUST BLO SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS FOR NOW BUT THIS NEED TO BE WATCHED AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LIKELY BRINGS HIGHER WINDS/SEAS TO THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ047-081-095. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ103-104. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-104. MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...SJ SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...BTC MARINE...BTC
