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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY
INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORM MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AND WANING MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN THIS EVE WITH DAYTIME HEAT LOSS
AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER TROF...ALTHO A FEW LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY MOVE ONTO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN AN AXIS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR DEW
POINTS BUT LIGHT WIND SHUD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NC ON WEDNESDAY SO SHUD BE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
THE SEABREEZE BNDRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUDS/PCPN WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND/AROUND
80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WED/THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS INLAND FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WED. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING
THEN ALL OF EASTERN NC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE SW WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON QPF ALONG
AND EAST OF HWY 17. TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ACTING TO
PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC
FRI. SW FLOW PERSISTS THURS WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING 30-40
PERCENT. TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR INLAND PORTIONS EARLY FRI AS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THURS AND FRI
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX. RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST...WINDS SHIFTING
NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. WEAK
CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON.
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FEATURE MON. TEMPS REMAIN
MILD MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU EARLY WED MORN (OUTSIDE ANY SCTD LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE CONVECTION). LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP IN THE MOIST
BNDRY LAYER LATE TONIGHT AND CUD BE BRIEF IFR CIGS IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED
THRU MIDDAY WED.

LONG TERM WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS IN MOIST SW FLOW. AVIATION CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN
LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE NW. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT N.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN SSW WINDS AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THRU WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NC COASTAL
WATERS WED THROUGH FRI BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THURS
AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED AN SCA FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS. SCAS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE TO 4-7 FT NEAR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
HAD ISSUES WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SO
MANUALLY ADJUSTED 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT ONCE CAA SURGE AND N TO NE
WINDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/DAG
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG