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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201905
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY. MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY
REACHED PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT ARE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ARE MOVING NORTH FROM WEST OF THE WILMINGTON
AREA. WHILE THE AREA CONTINUES IN AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES...THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT HAS REMAINED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGION...PREVENTED A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE INCREASED 300 MB DIVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...SO THINK ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THIS REGION. THINK THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AREAS WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE AND HAVE LEFT
THEIR POPS RIGHT AROUND 50 PCT. DID LEAVE ENHANCED WORDING FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ALL OF THE ZONES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. TSTMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 65
TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS
THAT CAN GET SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1248 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEK...EXCEPT THE
ECMWF 5H FEATURES DEEPER AS IT CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE
WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS A WEAKNESS OVER FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT LOW POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
GO WITH THAT...BUT WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWEST POPS OF THE
WEEK.

FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WILL START TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DECENT INSTABILITY AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. GOOD DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE 4
TAF SITES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL FORECAST THIS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOG. WILL KEEP THINGS
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT CERTAINLY COULD GO LOWER IF ANY
DECOUPLING OCCURS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GOOD DRYING SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SSW/SW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 2 TO 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH.
SEE NO REASON FOR MUCH TO CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN CONVECTION ONCE
IT REACHES THE COAST LATER ON THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1259 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP SPEEDS BELOW SCA. HOWEVER SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL LEGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC