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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 170537
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
137 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will lift back north as a warm front tonight.
High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast
around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 820 PM Tuesday...Storm threat has greatly diminished now
that the sun has set. Patchy fog is possible in the early
morning hours tomorrow, with the highest threat for Duplin and
Onslow counties.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Tuesday...Temps and dew points
have struggled to climb due to the strong northeasterly surge
that`s been pushing in behind the front. A large temp/dew point
gradient is laid out across the CWA right now with southern
communities around 80/60 and NOBX communities around 60/45.

Isolated convection for far inland counties remains on the table for
later this afternoon into the early evening. Mesoanalysis shows
surface CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg along the Duplin/Lenoir/Greene
County area at the time of convective initiation between 23-00Z. Mid-
level lapse rates around 7 C/km and deep layer shear around 30-40 kt
will also be present. The isolated showers and thunderstorms that
the CAMs are showing over this area may be able to produce some
strong gusts or small hail but they are expected to collapse quickly
as they move east into a less favorable environment. Working against
convective development, however, is a mid-level ridge overhead.
This does not the eliminate the chance of a shower or thunderstorm,
but it does lessen it, so PoPs have been capped at 15-20%.

Winds will veer towards the SE overnight and we`ll hang on to cloud
cover, which well help keep low temps near 60 across the board.
There`s a chance for fog to develop over southwestern portions of
the CWA after midnight

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...No major changes with this forecast
update.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Tuesday...Another warm day is
on tap tomorrow with high pressure overhead sending highs into
the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s for coastal
communities. A trough will move across the Great Lakes region
and push a mid- level shortwave across NC. This could provide
enough lift to support some scattered light showers over the
area but the column is fairly dry in the lower levels, so PoPs
have been capped at 10-15%.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... A fairly active pattern is on tap this
week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this
weekend.

Wednesday through Friday night...Upper ridging will crest over
the area early Wednesday then will flatten as a weakening trough
lifts NE`wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes/Ohio
River Valley. Assoc. mid level shortwave will push across the
area Wednesday night which may provide enough support to bring
isolated showers across the region. Upper ridging will build
back over the area Thursday with the axis cresting over the area
early Friday with dry conditions prevailing but another
dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is
progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night,
which may bring isolated showers across the region.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs
generally in the low to mid 80s each day with a few upper 80s
possible on Thursday. Highs along the coast will be in the 70s
Wednesday and Thursday with NNE onshore flow keeping temps in
the 60s across the OBX on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. Additional shortwave energy
moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across
the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore
front, which is progged to push off the OBX Sunday night and
push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Saturday looks to be another warm day
with temps well above normal inland with highs in the low to mid
80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in
behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep
temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 135 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across terminals this
morning as high pressure settles in behind a stalled frontal
boundary draped offshore and to our south. Previously noted
potential for fog and low stratus continues to drop per trends
in LAMP probabilistic guidance, now showing the best
probabilities for brief IFR conditions primarily along the
southern coast including EWN and OAJ. Further north, tongue of
drier air will likely impede fog/stratus development and removed
mention for those terminals. Any restrictions will be short
lived and quickly return to VFR by 13z, remaining so through the
end of the TAF period as mid-level clouds steadily increase
ahead of an approaching shortwave and frontal boundary.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers late Wednesday night, late Friday/Friday
night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level
shortwaves traverse the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period.
NE winds at 10-15 kt will veer to the southwest by tomorrow morning
and seas will remain at 3-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 445 AM Tuesday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters. Strongest winds through the period
are expected Wednesday through Thursday with SW winds around
10-20 kt. The front will push through Thursday night and stall
offshore Friday with pressure gradients weakening. Seas will
generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the
outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC/RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/OJC