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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231426
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN
SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1015 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
AM UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HIGH RES MODELS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS BECOMING MORE INLAND. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. STRONG
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH LATEST BLENDED TPW OF
1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH PWATS NEAR 2
SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. WITH
CLOUDS IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL INSOLATION WILL NOT BE REALIZED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S OBX AND
CRYSTAL COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...MIX OF IFR ACROSS PGV/ISO TO VFR ACROSS
EWN/OAJ WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHOWERS
BLOOM ACROSS EASTERN NC TERMINALS. MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING SW.
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT...AND SEAS 3-5 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT...WITH 10-20 KNOTS FOR THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ONLY
CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS
SW BY SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD
FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED
ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES
NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS
BUILD 6-7 FT...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS
INTO FRI.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/CQD/DAG