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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 171037
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE DAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWER POPS
EARLY BUT INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY FROM LATE MORNING ON. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SHIFTING TO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST. LOWS
MOST PLACES WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. A MODERATE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUES BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WED AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT WHICH AIDS IN DEVELOPING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG
THE FRONT. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DESCENT PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF WED
AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY. PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUES INTO
WED AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THU AND FRI
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
STALLS. THE BROAD UPPER TOUGH LIFTS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
COASTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA SAT WHICH COULD INCREASE SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUES AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED. NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THU
AND FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS GRADUAL
WARMING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECT A BROKEN MID CLOUD
DECK TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TUES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
TUES AND COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS
TUES THROUGH WED. THE FRONT STALL WILL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED INTO THURS WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...BEST CHANCES AT OAJ/EWN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER
THE TERMINALS BY LATE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MON...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS SO HAVE DROPPED THAT HEADLINE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUES WITH SW FLOW AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY WED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING SW WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE NORTHERN WATER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KT. COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH LOCAL SWAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 12Z WAVEWATCH III...INDICATING 6 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THE FRONT
THEN SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS WED/WED NIGHT AND STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS VARY ON WIND SPEEDS THU INTO EARLY FRI BASED ON THE
STRENGTH OF SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT BUT GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND
3-5 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RSB/SK
MARINE...RSB/SK