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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 161934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM THU...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN HIT 90. SWLY FLOW BRINGING WARM TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN OBX AS WELL WHERE OBS AROUND 85-90 ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN BRINGING INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS PA EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
600-800MB LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLT CHC POPS SWD TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR.
IN ADDITION...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE
NRN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SWLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM THU...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE KINSTON TO HATTERAS LINE DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PW`S
TO AROUND 1.5" AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SRN AREAS
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ONLY SEE
MID 80S. WINDS SHIFT FRONT NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND EXPECT THE MOST DRASTIC COOL DOWN TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT WV
APPROACHING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND ADDITIONAL
SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING...MAINLY THREATENING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTN...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...40136 HAS NOW DROPPED TO 5 FT AND WILL DROP THE
SCA SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z...THEN STALL
AROUND CAPE HATTERAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE AOB 15 KT...AND BLO 10 KT FRI INVOF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTH...SHIFTING THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN SWLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND FRI AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS SEAS BLO
6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY 2-4 FT FOR FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 15
GUSTING TO 20 KT ALL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...JME/SK