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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 161139
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 7 AM SUN...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE CHANGES FOR
EARLY MORNING UPDATE. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH SOME INC IN SW GRADIENT BRINGING GUSTY SSW WINDS TO THE
AREA UNDER EFFICIENT MIXING TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL INC
TO NEAR 1400M...SUPPORTING RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED DUE TO DIURNAL STRATO CU AS WELL AS CIRRUS MOVING IN ON
WNW FLOW ALOFT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.
CONTINUING MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUING THEIR WARMING TREND...AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO AREA
WIDE...WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST. AN INC IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TROUGH OF LOW PRES
FROM THE NW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS MON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING A
THREAT OF ISOL-SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODEST
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUE
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
REGION MOVING INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH PW`S NOW INCREASING TO AROUND 2"
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUE INTO EARLY WED.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER
WITH NOW A PAIR OF SFC LOWS PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO
WED. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WED AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SRN
REGIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
CLOUDS AND PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE
AND FOLLOWING THE MORE REASONABLE EC AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WED-FRI EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW VEERS
TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INC AND BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. JUST SOME SCT STRATO CU DEVELOPING TODAY ONCE
AGAIN...AS WELL AS AN INC IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NW AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO
10 KT THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...PRED VFR EXPECTED MON WITH SWLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH TUE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE ISOL-SCT CONVECTION BRINGING
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS COME MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED INTO THU AND WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE SW WINDS CONTINUING AROUND
15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CENTRAL PORTIONS. SEAS
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET. SW PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD WITH SCA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS SCA RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE MON
CONTINUING SWLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY TUE AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO AROUND
15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP WITH SWAN INDICATING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. A BACKDOOR FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AND PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 TO
15 KT...THOUGH WITH INITIAL SURGE WED COULD SEE N WIND UP TO 20 KT.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND
CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...WHICH IS MORE
AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER WITH NOW A PAIR OF SFC LOWS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO WED. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/SK
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL