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000
FXUS62 KMHX 160500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRES PULLS A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP BUT SWLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL
INHIBIT BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. GOOD MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN OBX AS WINDS GUST TO 20 KT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL SEE INCREASING AND THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
FROM THE WEST. W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GUSTY WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER...GENERALLY TO AROUND
15 KT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH MONDAY.
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) THROUGH MONDAY THEN
WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD. SWLY WIND GUSTS 15-20KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT...WITH BUOYS REPORTING 3-6
FT. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND SCA FOR
PAMLICO SOUND A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS STILL SHOWING GUSTS
TO 25KT. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURS ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT LATE TONIGHT
AND THURS. AVAILABLE BUOY OBS INDICATING 4-5 FT SOUTHERN WATERS
AND 2-3 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS BUT HAVE BUILD SOME OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CENTRAL WATERS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY STALLING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
TRYING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW 10 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
WATERS. SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SE AROUND 15 KT AND
CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD/DAG