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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 181739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM SAT...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAFS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1022 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD