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000
FXUS62 KMHX 191835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS THUS FAR
TODAY. SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS MODERATE SO THINK THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE VERY WET AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
PROJECTED STORM MOTIONS OF ONLY AROUND 8 KNOTS. POPS WILL BE IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR
MAY AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY AND COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RATHER WET DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE WITH
QPF TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN A VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THUS
FAR. THINK KOAJ AND KISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HINTS AT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL PROJECT THAT IN THE NEW TAF CYCLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE FORECAST AS
WINDS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE SE/S DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF GENERALLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
2 TO 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PER LATEST WAVEWATCH. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE BRIEFLY IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC