National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 252324
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HOURLY
TEMPS SLOW TO DROP GIVEN SOME LINGERING BL MIXING. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM AN UPSTREAT SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
AND MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS PSBL AGAIN INLAND. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSCTD WITH SHRT WV DIVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SRN SECTIONS. THIS
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...MID-UPR 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF SHRT WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR
LOW TO NE WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUN MORNING RESULTING IN WEAK
SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING SHRT WV
WILL BE PUSHED S DURING AFTN. GOOD INSOLATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID 70S INLAND
WITH 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ROUND THE RIDGE/BASE OF THE
EXITING TROUGH. NWLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY GIVEN A
MORE RELAXED GRADIENT IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBS
YIELDING NWLY FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4FT WITH
5FT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING OF PRES GRAD BETWEEN LOW PRES TO NE AND HIGH PRES
TO S AND W. WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER CAA SURGE SUNDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS DURING AFTN WITH LCL SEA/SOUND BREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING.

WILL ALLOW SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT....AND GENERALLY 2-4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/LEP