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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND LINGER THIS
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCT
SHRA OVER EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
OFFSHORE AND SKIES CLEARING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL PASSING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WHILE A RIDGE OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TODAY WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 60S FOR OBX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THEN PASS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT. SHUD SEE SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ESP OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS AND A SHIFT OF SFC
WIND TO LIGHT S/SW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS UP IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WED THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTS THE TREND OF MOVING THE HIGH OFFSHORE FAST WITH
RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND CONT ALL NIGHT. BASED
ON THIS RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO 50 TO 55 WITH LOWS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RISING A BIT LATE. MUCH WARMER WED WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH AND TRF TO THE W. WITH BUILDING HGTS
ALOFT TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S
BEACHES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PEAK OVER THE REGION
THU AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 90 INLAND WITH UPR 70S/LOWER
80S BEACHES UNDER PC TO MSUNNY SKIES.

SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INTERIOR CAROLINAS. 12Z GFS
PUSHES WEAK FRONT INTO REGION FRI AND STALLS IT INTO THE WEEKEND.
WL LEAN MORE TWRD ECMWF/HPC SOLUTION OF KEEPING BNDRY N OF
AREA...THIS WL RESULT IN MILD SW FLOW WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS MID TO UPR 80S INLAND AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80 MOST
BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONT LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC DIURNAL POP INLAND FRI
THROUGH MON FOR POSS SEA BRZ CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD. SCT-BKN SCU/AC WILL
MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPR LVL SHRT WV...THEN MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE DOMINATING. FLOW WILL BECOME SW
TUE NIGHT AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY WED INTO THU. WL HAVE SMALL CHCS
OF AFTN AND EVENING TSRA FRI AND SAT WITH POSS ACTVTY ASSOC WITH
SEA BRZ BUT CVRG WILL BE LIMITED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING WHILE VEERING NE/E
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AND SW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ALONG THE COAST. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT
WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...GRDNT TIGHTENS WED AS TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W...SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS MOST WTRS WED AFTN AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THU AND THU EVENING BUT STILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 20 KTS RANGE. WEAK BNDRY JUST TO THE N
FRI INTO SAT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SW TO W WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE WED AND LIKELY HOLD AOA
6 FT INTO THU EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH FRI AND SAT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THREATEN RECORD LOWS THIS
MORNING. MANY AREAS INLAND WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S. THE
FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14.

VALUE      LOCATION          YEAR
=====      ========          ====
45         HATTERAS (ASOS)   2008
44         NEW BERN (ASOS)   2008
43         MANTEO            2008
41         GREENVILLE        1928
40         KINSTON 7SE       1917
40         NEWPORT (NWS)     2008
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF
CLIMATE...