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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 190508
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...TWEAKED INITIAL TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO...LOWERED POPS TO SLGT CHC SHRA ALL BUT EXTREME ERN
AREAS WITH OFFSHORE SCT CONVECTION WHICH MAY WORK NWD ACRS THE ERN
PAMLICO SOUND AND SERN OBX AREAS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVED RAFL YESTERDAY. OTRW VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE
AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAF
SITES. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WITH 10-15 KT WS FROM OREGON INLET N...AND 10 KT OR
LESS SOUTH.

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/CTC/HSA
MARINE...CGG/JAC/CTC/HSA