National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 150907
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
507 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR ERN NC WITH SFC HIGH PRES
IN CONTROL WITH DRY AMS CONDS. WILL SEE SOME SCT CU IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 ON
THE COAST. LGT AND VRBL WINDS BECOME W THEN SW DURING THE DAY AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 AM SAT...CLR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DPTS
GRDLY COME UP WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LATE FOG
WITH DPTS RISING INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S WITH LGT WINDS EXPECTED.
FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH
MINS FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S...AND AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 4 AM SAT...FLAT RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN
INTO MON WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE BRINGING SWLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS MON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING A
THREAT OF ISOL-SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODEST
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUE
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS PW`S
INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5" WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER WITH
A SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WED AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
SRN REGIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO FOR THE MID
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL SEE SOME CU AROUND 5K FT DURG THE DAY. LGT AND VRBL
WINDS BECOME W THEN SW AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED SUN INTO MON WITH SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH TUE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WED. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE ISOL-SCT
CONVECTION BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS COME MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...WINDS HAVE BECOME LGT WLY 10 KT OR LESS N OF
HAT AND CONT LGT NE TO THE S WITH THE SFC RDG ACRS THE MARINE AREA.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW THIS AFTN
AND INCRS TO 10-15 KT CONTG TNGT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE SUN
AND MON BRINGING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-20 KT SUN MORNING A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-25
KT...STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND...WHICH CONTINUES INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT SUN MORNING INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY SUN EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER WINDS. GRADIENTS RELAX SLIGHTLY MON INTO TUE WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AND
PROGGED TO BE AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE AND CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...
WHICH IS SLOWER AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES
LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUE/TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 30 KT WITH WAVEWATCH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK