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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET
UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND LINGER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 PM MON...WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROF PRODUCING SCT- BKN AND ISOLATED SHRA OVER ERN VA INTO
N CNTRL NC... ADDED SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT RADAR RETURNS. MOST OF THE SPRINKLES WILL NOT AMT TO ANY
QPF...AS CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.  NO CHANGE
TO MIN TEMPS BUT DID ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 3 PM MON...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LAST OF CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXCEPT FOR A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
NOSEDIVE THIS EVENING WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. SEE TABLE BELOW FOR RECORDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM MON...SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH WIND IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL PLAIN TO THE MID 60S OUTER BANKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT.
12Z GUIDANCE CONTS THE TREND OF MOVING THE HIGH OFFSHORE FAST WITH
RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND CONT ALL NIGHT. BASED
ON THIS RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO 50 TO 55 WITH LOWS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RISING A BIT LATE. MUCH WARMER WED WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH AND TRF TO THE W. WITH BUILDING
HGTS ALOFT TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S
BEACHES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PEAK OVER THE REGION
THU AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 90 INLAND WITH UPR 70S/LOWER
80S BEACHES UNDER PC TO MSUNNY SKIES.

SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INTERIOR CAROLINAS. 12Z GFS
PUSHES WEAK FRONT INTO REGION FRI AND STALLS IT INTO THE WEEKEND.
WL LEAN MORE TWRD ECMWF/HPC SOLUTION OF KEEPING BNDRY N OF
AREA...THIS WL RESULT IN MILD SW FLOW WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS MID TO UPR 80S INLAND AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80 MOST
BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONT LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC DIURNAL POP INLAND FRI
THROUGH MON FOR POSS SEA BRZ CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD.
SCT-BKN SCU/AC WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH UPR LVL SHRT
WV...THEN CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE DOMINATING. FLOW WILL BECOME SW
TUE NIGHT AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY WED INTO THU. WL HAVE SMALL CHCS
OF AFTN AND EVENING TSRA FRI AND SAT WITH POSS ACTVTY ASSOC WITH
SEA BRZ BUT CVRG WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 PM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR
DECREASE TO WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 PM MON...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM MARINE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE AREA TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. GRDNT TIGHTENS
WED AS TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KTS MOST WTRS WED AFTN AND EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THU
AND THU EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 20 KTS RANGE.
WEAK BNDRY JUST TO THE N FRI INTO SAT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SW TO W
WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE
WED AND LIKELY HOLD AOA 6 FT INTO THU EVENING. AS WINDS DIMINISH
FRI AND SAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THREATEN RECORD LOWS TONIGHT.
MANY AREAS INLAND WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S. THE FOLLOWING
ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14.

VALUE      LOCATION          YEAR
=====      ========          ====
45         HATTERAS (ASOS)   2008
44         NEW BERN (ASOS)   2008
43         MANTEO            2008
41         GREENVILLE        1928
40         KINSTON 7SE       1917
40         NEWPORT (NWS)     2008

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/HSA/BM
CLIMATE...CTC