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000
FXUS62 KMHX 170945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
TODAY THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO INIT TEMPS OTRW NO CHANGES.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN SXNS EARLY THEN BECOME
STNRY ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCRG AMS MSTR AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DAY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 80S INLAND WITH LWR AND
MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT. OBX AND IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS MID AND UPR
70S. SKIES WILL BE MOCLDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECH
FOR SCT CONVECTION. WEAK SHTWV ENERGY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL RMN ON THE CLDY SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR AMD MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...WILL ADD VCTS TO TAF SITES FROM 18Z THIS
AFTN TO 00Z THIS EVE ON UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY
PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND SITES. LGT SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN SCT CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND
SEAS 2-5 FT EARLY THIS MORN. WINDS BECOME NE THEN E 10-15 KT
BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH SHOULD STALL ARND CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTN. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2-5 FT RANGE ACRS THE CSTL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY NORTH
OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. BY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL WINDS TO BECOME S/SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MON WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD