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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191003
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MADE MINOR TEMP AND POP CHANGES TO
INITIALIZE UPDATE OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. A WEAK MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL AMS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A SLY FLOW AND MODELS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES. EVEN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DURG MAX HTG AND LEFT
OVER TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE...AND WARM FRONT WILL AID
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAFL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OF TSTM CELLS ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S OBX UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY
AT THOSE THAT THOSE TAF SITES...LIKE EWN...THAT RECEIVED RAFL
YESTERDAY THROUGH 12Z. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES. CURRENTLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW 10
KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND SEAS 2-4 FT. PRES GRAD TGTNS
SOME WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT ACRS ALL OF THE
CSTL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 3-5 FT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS...SEAS...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A SCA IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD