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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 192244
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
644 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING LATE
TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SHOWERS MOVING NORTH
FROM THE OCEAN MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT CORE BANKS...THE SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS...AND DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. TRYING
TO PINPOINT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A DIFFICULT FORECAST
TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THIS.
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
IS FOR A DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING WHICH APPEARS TO BE ALREADY
OCCURRING. ANOTHER TREND NOTICED IS FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE WATER LATE TONIGHT AS EASTERN NC
REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO
>1.5" OVERNIGHT WHICH INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A 40 POP FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION BUT THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE DRY THEN WET WEATHER
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY AND COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RATHER WET DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE WITH
QPF TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN A VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN IN A DECREASING MODE
LATE TODAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AT ISO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 09Z THEN INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE SATURATED
LOW LEVELS. WINDS MAY PARTIALLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
THREAT IS GREATER FOR LOW CEILINGS THEN LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
BEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE AT PGV WHICH RECEIVED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS BUT STILL
TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING SO THINK BEST BET IS TO INDICATE
VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
2 TO 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME