000
FXUS62 KMHX 241514
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1112 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING
UPDATE. COLD FRONT BNDRY ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHOWERS OVER FCST AREA. FCST ON TRACK WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER
NE 1/3 OF AREA. TEMPS WILL RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGS OVER CURRENT
READINGS...BUT CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN MID 70S.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AN EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY
THEN PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT LULL IN WINDS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH POST-FRONTAL NW CAA SURGE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM