000
FXUS62 KMHX 202258
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY. MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING THIS MOIST BUT WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE. THUS BEST
SOLUTION WILL BE TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE PAST 3 NIGHTS THERE HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS IS AGAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF
ALREADY HAPPENING SO WILL DROP POPS DOWN TO CHANCE AND CALL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE I EXPECT TO FURTHER TRIM BACK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE. BASED ON OBSERVED LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE RAISED READINGS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS
THAT CAN GET SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEK...EXCEPT THE
ECMWF 5H FEATURES DEEPER AS IT CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE
WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS A WEAKNESS OVER FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT LOW POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
GO WITH THAT...BUT WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWEST POPS OF THE
WEEK.

FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WILL START TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DECENT INSTABILITY AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. GOOD DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...CONTINUES TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH MOIST AIRMASS BUT QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL OCCUR AS WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY PARTIALLY DECOUPLE AND AND AT LEAST PATCHY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WILL OCCUR ALL OF WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL AND THUS FOG
THREAT. LAST NIGHT THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WAS KEYING ON MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE AND THEY ARE AGAIN INDICATING THIS FOR
TONIGHT. LAST NIGHT THESE CEILINGS NEVER MATERIALIZED. WITH BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WILL FORECAST THESE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND
09Z. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GOOD DRYING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SSW/SW FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 2 TO 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1259 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP SPEEDS BELOW SCA. HOWEVER SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL LEGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME