000
FXUS62 KMHX 172025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE ADVECTING INLAND.
FULL POTENTIAL INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE REALIZED WITH SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WEST OF A BEAUFORT TO
PLYMOUTH LINE MOST LIKELY DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING A LITTLE LOWER
THAN EXPECTED. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOL-SCT CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE US64
CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ISOL TO SCT TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING INLAND AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN
RTES...ALONG THE US64/264 CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN THIS EVENING.
ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10
KTS OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SWLY FLOW AOB 15 KT TO THE SOUTH
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK