-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 220503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1250 AM WED...MILD SSW WINDS CONT OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRES OFF THE CST...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. RDR SHOWS
SOME ISOLD SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS...BULK OF THESE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
WTR HOWEVER WILL CONT TO MONITOR AS MAY NEED SMALL POP IMD CST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NC ON WEDNESDAY SO SHUD BE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
THE SEABREEZE BNDRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUDS/PCPN WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND/AROUND
80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THU WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THU WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. WEAK
CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT
WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH
TUE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON AND TUE AS THICKNESS VALUES AND
TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU EARLY MORN HRS WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR OR WORSE CIGS DEVELOPING. GFS BASED
GUIDANCE HITTING LOW CLOUDS HARD WHILE NAM KEEPS MAINLY VFR OVER
AREA. A FEW SITES TO THE SW HAVE LOW CIGS NOW SO THINK COULD BE SOME
DEVELOPING AT TAF SITES LATER. IF ANY STRATUS DOES DEVELOP SHLD LIFT
TO VFR THRU THE MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLD
CONVECTION INLAND THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND
THU NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WED...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH 10 TO
20 KT SSW WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. DID ADD SOME ISOLD SHRA FOR
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS PER RDR TRENDS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY WITHIN 20
MILES OF CST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THU AFTERNOON
AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WATERS
FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD