000
FXUS62 KMHX 161736
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM THU...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST AT THE
10 O`CLOCK HOUR. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SE
US. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT LOOK SIMILAR TO
YDAY...COUPLED WITH SWLY FLOW...SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN THE UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND. SOME SPOTS INLAND COULD
HIT 90 DEG TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THU...BACKDOOR FRONT FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. BASED ON SOME HIGH RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE EMC WRF...ADDED ISOLATED POP TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT. MAINLY AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTH OF
HWY 264. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) THROUGH MONDAY THEN
WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT WV
APPROACING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND ADDITIONAL
SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING...MAINLY THREATENING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTN...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THU...40136 REMAINS AROUND 6 FT AND HAS ACTUALLY
BUILT SLIGHTLY SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 4 PM. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SW WINDS
10-20KT...AND SEAS 4-6FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TONIGHT WITH BOTH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN AGREEMENT THAT SEAS
IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6 FT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EXPECT BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...COULD START TO SEE WINDS SHIFTING IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND EARLY FRI AM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY
STALLING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL WATERS. SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME
SE AROUND 15 KT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/JME
MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD