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000
FXUS62 KMHX 191405
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF OF THE COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH ALL INLAND LOCATIONS COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE SAND HILLS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHICH
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB FRONT. THESE SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN TEND TO DISSIPATE AS THE
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LATER TODAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ANALYZED OVER THE APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A STILL VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AOA 2"
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS CURRENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO ERODE...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL. THUS WILL
FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS FROM 20% NORTH TO 50% OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
SHOULD BE WITHIN REACH WITH SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THURS WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THURS AND
FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC NOSES SW OVER EASTERN NC. COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE
00Z/06Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH IS OVER DONE IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THU NIGHT AND MOVING IT
NORTH ACROSS THE OBX FRI/FRI NIGHT. KEEPING SAT DRY THOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE 12Z ECMWF BRING A COASTAL TROUGH
ASHORE DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER MOST GFS ENS MEMBERS KEEP THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH A FEW MEMBERS DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES ABOUT
200 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION BUT SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR ISOL CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. KEEPING SLT CHC POPS MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
OF COVERAGE AS ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS
MOVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THURS AND FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS SHIFTING SE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS GRADUAL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. TEMPS MON AND TUES BUILD BACK NEAR 90 AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BUILD 1400-1415 METERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. A MIXTURE OF
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL START THE DAY...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
THROUGH MVFR TO A VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. AS NE FLOW
PERSISTS INTO THE NIGHT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ISOL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK HEATING SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL ALLOW SOUTHERN WATERS ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. THE COLD FRONT WAS
CLEARING THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH PRODUCING A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW OF
15 TO 20 KT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THURS AND FRI WITH NE WINDS DOMINATING...AROUND 15-20 KT
THURS/THURS NIGHT AND 10-15 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY
3-5 FT. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO A COASTAL TROUGH MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE WATERS SAT BUT AT THIS TIME THINK IT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH NE WINDS AOB 10 KT SHIFTING TO SLY LATE AS HIGH PRES
MOVED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AOB 15 KT SUN WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RSB/SK
MARINE...RSB/JME/SK