-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 222330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 7 PM WED...INLAND CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE OBX AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PIVOTING TROUGH APPROACHING THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LOW
STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS MOVING IN ACROSS THE COAST. AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...SO TOO WILL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. FEEL THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FILL
IN ELSEWHERE AS WE NEAR THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.

CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...INLAND CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OF TWO AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL
THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
TAKES SHAPE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
REFLECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS ARE 2-4 FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS INCREASE AND BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING SEAS TO 6+ FT IN THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TOMORROW SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT AND
SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING NORTH.
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD/LEP