-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231701
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
101 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN
SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 1 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HIGH RES MODELS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER
EASTERN NC TODAY. STRONG UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90
INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH
LATEST BLENDED TPW OF 1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN
NC. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY TODAY. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT.
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL
INSOLATION WILL NOT BE REALIZED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
80S INLAND TO 70S OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS TIME. SCT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW 10-20 KT...AND SEAS 3-6 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO
ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS SW BY SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE
LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S
WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-7 FT...WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...HSA/CQD/DAG