000
FXUS62 KMHX 160655
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
MIDWEST. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SE US. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT LOOK SIMILAR TO
YDAY...COUPLED WITH SWLY FLOW...SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN THE UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S. SOME SPOTS INLAND COULD HIT 90 DEG TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THU...BACKDOOR FRONT FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. BASED ON SOME HIGH RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE EMC WRF...ADDED ISOLATED POP TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT. MAINLY AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTH OF
HWY 264. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) THROUGH MONDAY THEN
WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD. SWLY WIND GUSTS 15-20KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO
25KT...AND SEAS 4-6FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH.
GENERALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT SW WINDS 10-20KT. WILL DROP
SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND ON THIS PACKAGE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...WILL SLOWLY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
ADVISORY NORTH OF OREGON INLET LATER THIS MORNING...THEN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS 6FT SEAS COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXPECT BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...COULD
START TO SEE WINDS SHIFTING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE
SOUND EARLY FRI AM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY
STALLING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL WATERS. SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME
SE AROUND 15 KT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME