-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 210516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
116 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY. MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1 AM TUE...KEPT CHC POPS IMD CST AND DEEP INLAND BASED ON
CURRENT RDR TRENDS. LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC FOR BIG CHUNK OF INLAND
AREAS AS APPEARS MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY TO THE W AND E. NO CHANGE TO
LOWS WITH 65 TO 70. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT THINK LIGHT S
WINDS WOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS
THAT CAN GET SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEK...EXCEPT THE
ECMWF 5H FEATURES DEEPER AS IT CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE
WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS A WEAKNESS OVER FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT LOW POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
GO WITH THAT...BUT WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWEST POPS OF THE
WEEK.

FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WILL START TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWING OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DECENT INSTABILITY AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. GOOD DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...EXPECT MAINLY PDS OF MVFR CIGS IN SOME ST/SCU
OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIP STAYING W AND E OF TAF SITES. LIGHT S
WIND SHLD LIMIT FOG HOWEVER COULD BE SOME IN MAINLY MVFR RANGE AS
LOW LVLS QUITE MOIST WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GOOD DRYING SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO MJR CHANGES OVERNIGHT WITH S WINDS AOB 15 KTS
AND SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 4 FEET...POSS 5 FEET FAR OUTER WTRS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT TUE AFTN ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BUT SHLD STAY
BELOW 20 KTS WITH SEAS CONT MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1259 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP SPEEDS BELOW SCA. HOWEVER SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL LEGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/RF